Overdue

Just when you think things are bad, there is always something like a swine flu pandemic to make things a little bit worse. Of course, we have no idea what will come of any of this. Not really. If we are supposed to learn something about humanity's hubris because of this virus, it is also another kind of hubris to think we know whether this is catastrophic or not. We can't really know.


What has struck me in a lot of coverage of the swine flu is the use of the word overdue. The context for this is that with the major Spanish flu pandemic that swept the world at the end of the Great War in 1919, or the milder Hong Kong flu that swept the world in 1968, we are now somehow overdue for a pandemic. If you notice, things for which we are overdue are almost always negative and are meant to teach us some lesson. Humanity is never overdue for peace, love, happiness, or even a good hand job or a nice box of Belgian chocolates. Humanity is typically overdue for nasty things like hurricanes, tsunamis, terrorist attacks, and diseases.


It is a cliched writer's device to quote the dictionary. In just about every speech contest in high school, someone would always proclaim "Webster's dictionary defines _____ as," and then would go about supporting or augmenting that definition. But in this case, I think a dictionary definition is useful in trying to understand why people are somehow overdue for a flu pandemic.

Merriam Webster gives several senses of the word "overdue." One is the sense of being unpaid, as in an overdue bill. This suggests that something was supposed to have occurred at a specified time, and we did not fulfill our end of the contract, i.e., the phone bill was due on 4/1/09 and I forgot to pay it and now it is overdue. Under this meaning, humanity was supposed to suffer a major pandemic by a proscribed date, and we did not fulfill our end of the deal by contracting the flu. This sense suggests that someone knew when a pandemic was supposed to happen (or, loosely, when we think it should have occurred). Of course, having statistical and scientific data that suggests that a pandemic should occur is not exactly knowing when it should occur. So unless we could have been certain of a date or reasonable range, we can't really be overdue.

The next meaning is "delayed beyond an appointed time." This again suggests that we have a knowable point in time after which, if the thing doesn't occur, we can say it is overdue: "The plane from Tashkent was supposed to arrive at 11 a.m. Since it is now 11:30 a.m. and the plane has yet to arrive, the plane is overdue." Again, this works only if we have a promise of when something is to occur and that time comes and goes and it doesn't happen. But I know of no appointed time when a pandemic was to occur, so we can't really be overdue. Unless you have a deep belief that something will occur at a certain time as some apocalyptic religions do. For instance, if you believed the Y2K hype that the world was supposed to end in the year 2000, then you might say that we are overdue for an apocalypse. But did anyone believe that a flu pandemic was scheduled to happen last year, so now we are overdue and we're all waiting and waiting?

Vladimir: You have a message from Mr. Godot.

Boy: Yes Sir.

Vladimir: He won't come this evening.

Boy: No Sir.

Vladimir: But he'll come to-morrow.

Boy: Yes Sir.

Vladimir: Without fail.

Next meaning: excessive. "Although all of the boys vandalized the school, only Scott was expelled. He received an overdue share of the blame." I don't think this is what is meant, but if a flu pandemic wiped out the human race, then we might say it was overdue. There certainly wouldn't be anyone around to learn any lessons.

Last meaning: "more than ready." This is what I think most people really mean when it is said that we are overdue for a pandemic. This is where there is a stern moral sense to all of this discussion, along with a prophetic tone. In this sense, human beings have been allowed to think that they are greater than nature, and that they have the knowledge to counter any challenge, artificial or natural, and now they somehow must be taught a lesson and shown their place in the cosmos. The party has gone on too long and the retribution is overdue.

First of all, I don't know what lessons we are to learn from a catastrophic pandemic. Should I have behaved differently? Should I have eaten more broccoli and less pork? Should I have washed my hands and gone to church more often? It seems that the crime, if any, is not recognizing our own powerlessness as people. But in what fashion are we supposed to recognize our powerlessness? And then the suitable punishment for our hubris is to have a lot of people die? And once they die, what lessons are we to have learned and how will we behave differently as a result?

The pandemic is not the same situation as, say, global warming. With the spectre of global warming, there are many lessons we can learn and act on right now: recycling, using less oil, being mindful of our resources. But what is an equivalent reaction by the average person to a pandemic? They should have studied virology a little more?

The thing is, anything that would prevent a pandemic is out of the control of the average person, and the things that increase the number of the deaths in a pandemic -- limited resources, inequitable distribution of medicine and medical care, etc. -- are not things we can easily affect since these are in control of those in power like politicians and insurance companies and banks.

Let us also not forgot that this new swine flu is punishment for white Westerners. AIDS has been a major health crisis in sub-Saharan Africa for years with a generation of "AIDS orphans" the result. Was this something for which African children were overdue? Since they saw themselves as being above nature, they are learning their lesson by having their parents killed off? Our swine flu is certainly puny when compared to that. But those are only black people in Africa.

I know this is a grotesque example, but purporting to know when catastrophic events when and should occur, and that people should learn lessons from them, is a very high level of hubris indeed.